The Future of Interactive Television

I plan to complete a Delphi study on the future of interactive television this spring if everything falls into place. I want to share resources on forecasting the market for interactive television, but rather than start a new blog, I will post references here.

My Telecommunications 5990 undergraduate seminar is going to start and try to complete a Delphi forecasting study on the future of interactive television. We will identify 20-25 experts on interactive television, not forecasting. As you may know, a Delphi study uses a panel of experts for feedback that leads to both consensus and lack of consensus (both are important), but it is not a survey. I have worked on Delphi projects in the past.

1. Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.

2. Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise. Customarily, the panelists are experts in the area to be investigated.

3. Development of the first round Delphi questionnaire

4. Testing the questionnaire for proper wording (e.g., ambiguities, vagueness)

5. Transmission of the first questionnaires to the panelists

6. Analysis of the first round responses

7. Preparation of the second round questionnaires (and possible testing)

8. Transmission of the second round questionnaires to the panelists

9. Analysis of the second round responses (Steps 7 to 9 are reiterated as long as desired or necessary to achieve stability in the results.)

10. Preparation of a report by the analysis team to present the conclusions of the exercise

Source: http://www.iyte.edu.tr/~muratgunaydin/delphi.htm

Magnificently, there is a web site at the Wharton School that they have generously allowed anyone to use without permission. It is located at http://armstrong.wharton.upenn.edu/delphi2/ so all we have to do is get panel members to agree to participate anonymously from one another, select very broad questions to start, and winnow them down to a final consensus at the end of the third round.