iTV Investors, Consumers, Come Read and Learn
Welcome to tonight's installment of critical thinking about new media technologies. In a press release dated 14 December 2005, "Charter Communications, JVC, Mitsubishi Digital Electronics America, Inc., NBC Universal, Samsung and Sun Microsystems today announced the formation of HANA, the High-Definition Audio-Video Network Alliance. HANA members are working together to create a design guideline for secure high definition audio visual networks that will speed the creation of new, higher quality, easier to use HD products. [Partnership announcements are not usually something you can bank on. -BK]
"In addition to the founding members, ARM, Freescale Semiconductor and Pulse~LINK have joined HANA as contributing members.
"'HANA brings together content providers, consumer electronics, service providers and IT with the sole purpose of addressing HD needs such as quality of service, ease of use and content protection,' said Dr. Heemin Kwon, HANA president and Samsung executive vice president. 'Since HANA is a cross-industry effort with members from each of the impacted HD industries, we can achieve the 'win-win' necessary to commercialize HD networks. HANA is a milestone among industry alliances because we are starting in the living room, not the home office.'"
The press release went on to say something that I can almost promise will not happen: "The first commercial products are expected to be available at International CES 2007."
OK, here's my outsider's view based on 20 years of research and observation. Readers, this is the 110% classic example of seeing the end state scenario (these new products) without being able to see the barriers that will appear between now and then. Yes, in my opinion, you can take that to the bank. The research problem is that we do not go back and check these press releases. Suffice it to say, I spent over a year doing just that, and while companies sometimes are knowingly, deliberately overly optimistic, others (such as, perhaps, this case) are earnest in their prediction.
Look for what is actually happening to understand today's marketplace. Attend technical conferences to see what will be happening in 3-5 years.
You may use this content (better still, argue with me!), but please cite my ideas as © 2005, Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein. Best viewed in Firefox thanks to Microsoft going its own way with Internet Explorer.