Video Killed the Web Star

Video Killed the Web Star

[blogger.com has stopped me from posting anything new. So please go to http://itvresearh.blogspot.com for newer posts that those listed here.]

I've been singing this song since before I began this blog. Commercial market forecasters have a reputation for overly optimistic forecasts on, especially, consumer electronics products. If you write a research report that you want to sell to anyone who will pony up to the bar and hand over, say, $2500 for one copy, then it makes little sense to entitle your report "Nothing New in 2006-2007." No, far better to say "Television Is Facing a Revolution" not just in 2006, but for the last 10 or 20 years. How many times have we heard that the broadcast networks are dinosaurs? That must go back 25 years or more.

Well, commercial market researchers did not see the backyard satellite boom of the early 1980s (when cable networks were sent via satellite "in the clear," without being scrambled). I seriously doubt many market forecasters were predicting $20 DVD players for Christmas 2004, or the precipitous drop in the price of DVDs from $29.99 when they were introduced to, well, whatever they are today (I find Acadamy Award winning movies of similar caliber and age going for drastically different prices; it's very hard on the eyes when you want to see the prices of DVDs placed in alphabetical on a long wall in Target).

Well, the news of Google's potential offer to buy YouTube.com grabbed the headlines, but it also was a hard slap in the face of any backward thinking television or movie executive. The web is racing toward the day when 2 hour, wide screen blockbuster movies can be downloaded in minutes...or less from catalogs of, say, 30,000 titles (Netflix currently claims this many). MSNBC.com now has a feature called "best videos of the week" and any television program provider that stays out of this web-delivered video business may not be around to defend their position in 5 years. That's 5 21st century, 2006-2011 years in which the pace of technological innovation is accelerating.

What will the local television stations do? Well, as long as there remains a long line of "I wanna be on camera" TV reporters, local television newscasts may still remain locally viable.

Who will be the first NewsTube? Just as radio stations ask automobile drivers to call in traffic problems and more, NewsTube.com (yes, I just made it up) might get "home made videos" of news events that the big shots can't. Isn't it funny how the TV news industry went from "only the best video quality will do" to videophones that could be set up just about anywhere with far less resolution, to YouTube videos, many of which are of horrible technical quality...but are being watched.

These are exciting times. Just keeping up with industry news is a challenge, but more and more I choose to keep up with that news from a variety of non-sanctioned web sites with (gasp!) people with no journalism training whatsoever uploading their stories to YouTube and/or any of hundreds and thousands of video blogs. Can a political candidate afford ANY mistakes now? Someone's going to have a camera phone in the audience...

You may use this content (better still, argue with me!), but please cite my ideas as © 2006, Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein. Find any typos! Don't smite me, let me know!