Optimistic iTV Forecasts for Sale!

You may use this content (better still, argue with me!), but please cite my ideas as (c) 2005, Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein.

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OK, I will need to find a way to capture this news story so I can use it as a case study in how NOT to forecast future markets for new media. This one happens to be about "interactive television:"

http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/8465.html

Research based on interviews with executives and consumers. Do the executives have an interest in seeing the new medium succeed. If so, are they likely to be publicly pessimistic? If a consumer is asked if they want an exotic new product, is there any optimistic bias here (think "Would you like to own a Jaguar?").

And what a coincidence! Here's another reference we can validate today: "The growth of interactive television (iTV) will occur in small pockets and not throughout entire countries, according to a study by Jupiter Media Metrix, which found iTV will grow at a rate of 83 percent annually through 2005." Source: http://www.clickz.com/stats/sectors/hardware/article.php/758641

More to come. Please check out my nascent itvresearch.org web site.