Optimistic iTV Forecasts for Sale!
You may use this content (better still, argue with me!), but please cite my ideas as (c) 2005, Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein.
OK, I will need to find a way to capture this news story so I can use it as a case study in how NOT to forecast future markets for new media. This one happens to be about "interactive television:"
Research based on interviews with executives and consumers. Do the executives have an interest in seeing the new medium succeed. If so, are they likely to be publicly pessimistic? If a consumer is asked if they want an exotic new product, is there any optimistic bias here (think "Would you like to own a Jaguar?").
And what a coincidence! Here's another reference we can validate today: "The growth of interactive television (iTV) will occur in small pockets and not throughout entire countries, according to a study by Jupiter Media Metrix, which found iTV will grow at a rate of 83 percent annually through 2005." Source: http://www.clickz.com/stats/sectors/hardware/article.php/758641
More to come. Please check out my nascent itvresearch.org web site.