Klopfenstein Cites Jupiter Study as Dramatically Conservative

Here's the news:

JupiterResearch reports that search advertising dollars will outpace display advertising over the next decade. A new report by the research outfit also says that online ad spending will reach $25.9 billion by 2011, representing nearly 9 percent of the total U.S. ad market.

It's fairly ridiculous in 2006 to pretend that you can foreast much of anything in media 5 years out. If this were 1966 and we were forecasting to 1971, not much problem. Ironically, Jupiter is dramatically underestimating the online advertising market. To be fair, I'd have to see how Jupiter defines "online advertising." "Nearly 9% of the total U.S. ad market"? You've got to be kidding. My guess is that this might (only might) represent linear growth in online advertising spending. Folks, that's not the way the media world works. The changes in ad spending in future media will be dramatic, and 9% implies that online ad spending isn't going much of anywhere compared to where we are today.

You want to argue with me? I've drawn my line in the sand: give me your best shot (and we'll all be better off for the debate). Faithful readers know I often get on the case of commercial market research reports for sale because they "need" to sound dramatic to sell. I'll spend a little time (not much, because press releases are probably the best I can do) to see if I can find out more about this conservative, even ultraconservative forecast.

You may use this content (better still, argue with me!), but please cite my ideas as © 2006, Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein. Find any typos! Don't smite me, href="mailto:drbrucek@gmail.com">let me know!


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