IP TV Forecast

You may use this content, but please cite my ideas as (c) 2005, Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein..

"Broadband IP TV revenue is forecasted to grow from $635 million in 2004 to more than $7 billion in 2008 according to firm Research and Markets." This quote comes from an article published in Designtechnica.com, but it is most likely taken from a press release issued by Research and Markets, a reseller of market research reports with its main office in Dublin, Ireland. (If I'm wrong on that, I hope the friendly folks at Research and Markets will let me know.) Oh, by the way, Designtechnica.com got it wrong. Research and Markets is offering this report from March 2005 for sale, it is not the author. After some serious searching, it appears that MRG Multimedia Research Group is the author of this report.

Meanwhile, here's another lesson in forecasting. So what if some research report claimes IP TV revenues are going to be $7 billion in 2008? That information in and of itself is almost as useful as saying "the cumulative total of precipitation in Columbus, Ohio from 2004-2008 will reach 170 inches." Why will the total be $8 billion? Why not $45 billion? Does 2008 reflect an inflection point in the growth of IP TV revenues or does the forecaster have a "straight line" growth forecast from 2004 through 2008?

And here's what really matters to consumers of market research forecast studies: what are the key, explicit assumptions involved in making this forecast?