Commercial Forecasters Continuing Erroneous, Conservative DVR Forecasts

You may use this content, but please cite (c) 2005, Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein.

I have studied the commerical market research industry, and given the choice between selling a report called "More of the Status Quo" versus "The Sky Is Falling," it's easy to see why so many market projections (especially early ones) are overly optimistic. It is with some irony, then, that I find myself critical of most commecial market projections for DVRs as being far too conservative. It's easy to find these reports because firms like the Yankee Group, Forrester Research, Paul Kagan Associates, and others because they freely release key findings on PR networks such as prnewswire.

Here's a very recent example: New analysis from Frost & Sullivan
(http;//www.IT.frost.com), World Broadcast and Network
Digital Video Recorder (DVR) Markets, reveals that revenue
in this market grew at over 10 percent in 2004 and is
projected to reach $82.7 million in 2011. Source: CD Computing News, Jun2005, Vol. 19 Issue 6, p3. My observation: outrageously conservative, again. An earlier forecast by Forrester Research predicted nearly half of American households will have a DVR by 2009 (Source: USA Today; 05/17/2004).

Another example that I find to be exceptionally conservative, although in its "defense" it is an old report (March 2004):

"Worldwide DVR shipments reached over 4 million in 2003, fueled by strong demand in the United States and Japan," says Greg Ireland, senior analyst in IDC's Consumer Markets program. "Over the next five years, we expect shipments to increase at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 50%, to reach over 28 million in 2008."

Source: IDC Research Group
Publication Date: March 2004 retrieved http://www.electronics.ca/reports/devices/dvr_market.html on 16 June 2005 (correct)


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